Quarterly Market Pulse (Q1 2025): Price Trends in 1960s Tool Watches

Data sources: WatchCharts market indices, Chrono24 active listings and completed-sales data, plus hammer prices from Phillips, Christie’s and Sotheby’s auctions in Q1 2025. Currency conversions use the early-May average of 1 USD ≈ 1.55 AUD.

Updated table of core references

 

Macro factors shaping Q1 prices (Australia)

1. A softer Aussie dollar

The AUD slipped 3 % against the USD between January and April 2025. That pushed local sticker prices higher, but it also motivated offshore dealers—particularly in the US and EU—to cut “mates-rates” packages for Australian buyers who could pay in AUD via escrow. Crown Vintage clients reported achieving 2–3 % discounts compared with late-2024 levels simply by transacting in local currency.

2. Higher service-centre backlogs

Lead times for calibre-321 Speedmasters ballooned to ten months at Omega’s authorised workshops. The knock-on effect was a small premium for examples with a recent independent service report, widening the gap between serviced and “running-but-unknown” pieces to as much as AUD 3 000.

3. Auction marketing still moves the needle

Phillips’ Geneva Watch Auction XXI devoted an entire segment to corporate-issue dive watches. Although only a handful of COMEX-dial pieces crossed the block, Instagram amplification caused a brief uptick in search traffic for plain-vanilla Sub 5513s during the same week. Within a fortnight prices drifted back—evidence that social-media buzz inflates asking prices faster than it converts to closed deals.

Methodology and caveats (read before you quote)

• Chrono24 “asks” vs real settlement: We filtered for completed deals only, using the platform’s closed-sale data where available. Open listings can overstate market levels by 8-10 %.
• WatchCharts volatility: A 23 % volatility rating on the 5513 means sales are scattered, not necessarily that prices are falling. Thin supply exaggerates day-to-day moves.  
• Auction-house premiums: All hammer prices exclude buyer’s premium. Add roughly 25 % to get an all-in figure comparable with private sales.
• Condition controls: Prices assume honest but unpolished cases and original dials. Heavily refinished examples can be 15–20 % cheaper; exceptional NOS pieces 30–40 % dearer.

Spotlight: standout lots and sleeper bargains

COMEX Submariner 5514 – the halo effect

The CHF 82 550 hammer for lot 121 at Phillips (with original gas-escape valve and full paperwork) grabbed headlines, yet its influence on vanilla 5513s was muted. Dealers tested higher list prices for a fortnight, but WatchCharts’ index recorded no sustained lift. Verdict: great theatre, limited trickle-down.  

Carrera 2447 – one listing tells a story

The German-based USD 9 803 2447N moved within 72 hours, despite being a late-production 1970 piece rather than the scarcer 1963-64 “first execution.” Thin supply plus the marketing tailwind from TAG Heuer’s modern Carrera Glassbox pushed buyers to act quickly.  

Autavia 1163V – value play with momentum

The Viceroy’s five-year 31.6 % climb still leaves it at less than half the price of a Valjoux-72-powered Daytona 6265. Collectors chasing a wearable 42 mm case, bright handset and early Calibre 11 automatic movement see room for another leg up—especially as racing-themed content surges ahead of the 2026 F1 season.  

Navitimer 806 – anniversary bump, but tread carefully

Breitling’s 70-year marketing push nudged tidy twin-jet dial 806s above USD 6 000. Be wary of over-polished bezels and swapped hands: service parts are rife, and originality is the only thing propping up the premium.  

Sector take-aways (Q1 in plain language)

1. Halo sales ≠ wholesale re-rating. Blockbuster lots spark chatter but seldom reset baseline prices.
2. Condition gap is widening. Collectors care less about year and more about polish loss, dial fade and lume originality.
3. Movement parts supply drives liquidity. The ready availability of Valjoux 72 and calibre 321 components supports higher velocity in those references compared with obscure Venus calibres.
4. Currency arbitrage is real. A soft AUD rewards buyers willing to shop in USD but settle in Australian dollars via escrow.
5. Data is your friend. Asking prices alone tell half the story; closed-sale data and volatility indices reveal whether a reference is genuinely liquid.

What to watch in Q2 2025

 

Final thoughts

Q1 2025 reinforced that the 1960s tool-watch segment is evolving, not contracting. Baseline references such as the Submariner 5513 and Speedmaster 105.012 found equilibrium, while value plays like the Autavia 1163V continued their quiet catch-up. Record auction results made headlines but did little to shift day-to-day deals, proving yet again that data beats hype.

For Crown Vintage clients, the formula remains unchanged: buy originality, track closed-sale data, budget for a service before you need it, and remember that currency swings are a lever—sometimes in your favour. Nail those fundamentals and you’ll trade confidently in a market that, while cooler than 2021’s frenzy, still rewards informed decisions.

References

1. Phillips. The Geneva Watch Auction: XXI, Lot 121, Rolex Submariner 5514 COMEX, hammer price CHF 82 550 (10 May 2025).  
2. WatchCharts. Rolex Submariner 5513 Market Overview, data retrieved 7 May 2025.  
3. Chrono24. Heuer Carrera Vintage Chronograph 2447N listing ID 30841844, USD 9 803 (4 May 2025).  
4. WatchCharts. Heuer Autavia “Viceroy” 1163V Price Index, retrieved 6 May 2025.  
5. Chrono24. Breitling Navitimer 806 reference page, active listings 4 600 – 6 971 USD (5 May 2025).  
6. Chrono24. Omega Speedmaster 105.012 reference page, completed-sale range 9 947 – 15 062 USD (5 May 2025).